Michaël van de Poppe - 25 October 2022
Moving towards a huge breaking point!
Hi there! Welcome to our new blog article! Enjoy the read!
This week there is so much data, the picture only shows the bare minimum. For all the dates, click on the link!
Potential Market movers
Flash Services PMI
Flash Manufacturing PMI
All the Speeches
EUR Monetary Policy Statement
Important Data Points
All the PMI’s from countries in Europe
New Home Sales
BoJ Monetary Policy Statement
So with everything we've seen over the past few weeks, we know that economically we are moving toward a huge breaking point. Our base case is that this breaking point will be prevented by Fed intervention, last week we already saw a signal of this,
So what we have been talking about for months became visible last week. It is essential for the markets to see a trend change in policy, and we see this potential change here.
What the message makes clear is that the Fed is considering changing the course around rate hikes, from 75bps to 50bps. This is not a PIVOT! But a first signal that they realize what is going on. So for the economy still QT, but like the economic data, markets are extrapolating this toward future policy.
So where the economy looks one way now, with a change in policy the economy will look another way in 12-18 months. That's how markets work.
The crypto market thinks 12-18 months ahead, so that's why this period is of extreme interest to investors like you and me!
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